Promar International

John Giles is the divisional director of Agri-food at Promar International, a UK-based market research and consultancy firm supporting farmers, retailers, food service providers, trade associations and governments. For nearly 30 years, he has helped clients guide the fast-evolving global Agri-food sector with strategic insight and a grounded, practical perspective. His journey began after graduating from university in the UK with a degree in Geography and History, just as the fall of communism in Eastern Europe opened new agricultural and food opportunities across what was the Eastern Bloc. This marked the start of a learning curve that led him to projects across Poland, Ukraine, Russia and beyond. Since then, John has worked in over 60 countries. Every trip, every project, every client has added something new to Promar’s understanding of the Agri-food landscape.

In this interview, Giles highlights the critical need for resilience and long-term vision in the Agri-food sector. He emphasizes how businesses must navigate complex global challenges, from climate change and geopolitical shifts to evolving trade dynamics by embracing technology, understanding customer needs and building strong internal values to stay competitive and future-ready.

Resilience is No Longer Optional in Agri-Food

Agri-food businesses are at the crossroads of myriad forces growing more complex by the day. Climate volatility, rising input costs, geopolitical instability and sustainability demands are no longer future concerns. They shape how the industry works right now. The shift to Net Zero agriculture is gathering pace and with it comes the need for smarter, more efficient systems that reduce environmental impact without compromising yields or profitability.

The risk landscape has changed. It is no longer about single points of failure, but overlapping disruptions. What used to be manageable shocks now arrive in clusters, making recovery harder and less predictable for businesses operating across borders. Tariff regimes and trade policies introduce another risk layer. These are not just business constraints. They are shaping who holds terms of trade, who gets access to key markets and how decisions are made across entire supply chains.

Control over supply chains is shifting. It is not only about how food moves from farm to shelf, but also who influences that journey and how quickly that influence can change. The strongest businesses recognize this shift and respond with systems built to absorb supply chain shock impacts and recover fast.

Preparing for the Next Shock Means Expecting One

If recent years have taught us one thing, disruption rarely arrives on schedule. No one could have predicted how long and wide the effects of COVID-19 would reach, yet the warning signs were there. The same goes for climate-driven crop failures, unexpected tariffs or geopolitical standoffs. Each of these alone can disrupt trade. Together, they create a near-permanent tension that Agri-food businesses must now plan around.

 It’s not just about how food gets from farm to fork anymore, but also about who has the most control over terms of trade, access to markets and other aspects of decision-making around sustainability issues 

The reality is that the next disruption will come. We may not know its exact form yet, but it will test operational and strategic agility. That is why flexibility is now a core capability, not just a feature of good planning. Businesses must be designed to pivot quickly, adapt supply routes, change partners if needed and manage cost implications in real time. That level of agility cannot be retrofitted. It has to be embedded into how businesses operate from the ground up.

Trade Access Is Expanding, but So Are the Costs of Entry

When the UK left the European Union, it retained tariff-free trade with EU partners, which should have kept costs relatively low on paper. Yet businesses faced and continue to face higher non-tariff barriers—extra paperwork, delayed shipments and increased administrative costs—that complicate trade. These frictions have altered cost structures and timelines, affecting suppliers and customers.

At the same time, new trade agreements for the UK with countries like Australia, New Zealand, the United States and India are potentially opening doors to new markets. These deals are promising, but access alone is not enough. Competing in these regions requires a long-term effort, a deep market understanding of customers and consumers and resources to adapt to each region’s regulatory and commercial norms. Businesses cannot treat them as “plug-and-play” opportunities.

Success means maintaining a clear strategy that balances commercial discipline with operational adaptability, aligning business objectives with client outcomes while remaining ready to absorb future shocks.

Technology Is a Powerful Lever, If Used with Purpose

Many businesses see increased technology as a way forward and rightly so. AI and data-driven tools can improve forecasting, reduce waste and improve decision-making. However, not every technology-based tool is worth the investment. The key lies in identifying the right solution at the right time, which adds value without overburdening the business or the balance sheet.

AI is especially promising in managing complex supply networks and analyzing risk. Yet its value depends entirely on how well it aligns with specific needs. It must solve real problems, not add new ones. When chosen thoughtfully and applied with focus, technology can help businesses improve performance and build lasting resilience.

Customer Focus Remains the Strongest Constant

Amid global disruptions and market shifts, the most grounded insight remains unchanged. Businesses that know their customers very well and act on that knowledge consistently perform better. Whether facing regulatory hurdles, trade shocks or climate pressures, companies with a deep understanding of their customer goals and constraints are better placed to respond meaningfully.

The best-performing Agri-food businesses share a common trait. They are clear on what they stand for, where they are going and how every part of their operation supports that direction. This clarity builds trust, unifies internal and external teams and creates a culture of adaptability. And in a landscape where uncertainty is the only certainty, those qualities become the foundation of long-term success.